Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0122…44e1 crypto 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$249 (-3%) realized −$262 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%145W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$116
14 days+$87
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$119
other 13% −$16
crypto 13% −$159
world 7% +$41
economics 3% −$30
politics 3% +$21
tech 2% −$39
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +16.3% +5.2% 61% 61% +2.5%
≤30d 147 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 54% -8.0%
≤90d 157 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 54% -7.2%
all 422 -13.6% -21.8% 34% 33% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 33% -12.9%
10% -29.3% 30% -21.2%
15% -36.1% 24% -28.8%
20% -42.4% 19% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses145 / 277
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions7
Markets (closed)422 / 429
History coverage241d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $19 +$13 (+221%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$29 +294%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 +$26 +105%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 +$22 +149%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 +$24 +34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$28 +114%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $25 +$8 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$17 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$10 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$14 -56%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$10 +42%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 21 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$29 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $10 +$13 +130%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$12 -59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$15 +58%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$8 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $35 −$1 -3%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$9 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$13 -54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $20 $0 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $25 +$10 +42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$39 -196%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $75 −$42 -56%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $25 +$11 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +221%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $27 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $39 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 4h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $15 4h
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $90 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 5h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 54¢ $17 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 91¢ $33 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $42 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $25 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $11 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $25 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.51 · official $53.51 (match) · 788 history records