Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

01 0x0121…54eb sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized +$9 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day39.0pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-31.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-23.8%	-31.0%	38%	38%	-17.7%
≤30d	21	-23.8%	-31.0%	38%	38%	-17.7%
≤90d	21	-23.8%	-31.0%	38%	38%	-17.7%
all	21	-23.8%	-31.0%	38%	38%	-17.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover39.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-31.0%	38%	-17.7%
10% ← realistic here	-37.6%	38%	-25.6%
15%	-43.6%	33%	-32.8%
20%	-49.2%	33%	-39.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -10% → late -36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$9

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day39.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	Chicago White Sox	47¢	10¢	$49	$10	−$39 (-80%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves	Jun 19	$90	−$41	-45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$119	−$1	-1%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)	Jun 19	$68	+$51	+76%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu	Jun 19	$41	−$41	-100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	Jun 19	$50	−$32	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 19	$17	−$17	-100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova	Jun 19	$25	−$25	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 19	$39	−$39	-100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo	Jun 19	$70	+$38	+54%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	Jun 19	$51	+$44	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 19	$18	−$18	-100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 19	$29	−$29	-100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles	Jun 19	$45	−$4	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 19	$8	−$8	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$29	−$29	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 19	$18	+$12	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 19	$20	+$10	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 19	$32	+$18	+54%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5	Jun 19	$30	+$32	+105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$60	+$16	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	47¢	$33	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	47¢	$14	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	47¢	$1	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	47¢	$1	1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves	SELL Atlanta Braves	24¢	$49	1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY Atlanta Braves	42¢	$90	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	SELL Chicago White Sox	28¢	$41	1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers	BUY Chicago White Sox	45¢	$69	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	79¢	$118	2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	79¢	$119	2h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)	SELL Chicago Cubs	100¢	$119	3h
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)	BUY Chicago Cubs	56¢	$68	6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	SELL Toronto Blue Jays	17¢	$17	6h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	47¢	$50	7h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu	BUY Jeline Vandromme	52¢	$41	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$17	8h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo	SELL Francisco Cerundolo	100¢	$108	8h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo	BUY Francisco Cerundolo	64¢	$70	8h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova	BUY Nikola Bartunkova	41¢	$25	9h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	SELL Ugo Humbert	100¢	$94	11h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert	BUY Ugo Humbert	53¢	$51	11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$39	11h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles	SELL Samsung Lions	53¢	$3	12h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles	SELL Samsung Lions	55¢	$37	12h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles	BUY Samsung Lions	60¢	$45	12h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Ben Shelton	45¢	$29	18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$18	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$8	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$1	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$17	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.83 · official $9.83 (match) · 52 history records