Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
01 0x0121…f722 other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,298 (+12%) realized +$6,300 · open −$1,002
Gross ROI / mkt +150% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip
Net edge+93%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$15,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$2,263
crypto 4% −$289
world 3% −$414
sports 1% −$192
politics 0% +$156
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+126.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.4% +26.1% 73% 36% +29.5%
≤30d 14 +150.2% +126.3% 64% 36% +27.8%
≤90d 14 +150.2% +126.3% 64% 36% +27.8%
all 14 +150.2% +126.3% 64% 36% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +126.3% 36% +27.8%
10% ← realistic here +104.7% 36% +15.6%
15% +84.9% 36% +4.4%
20% +66.8% 36% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +150% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +220% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$115 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$15,532
Realized+$6,300
Unrealized−$1,002
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions48
Markets (closed)14 / 63
History coverage19d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $1,641 $2,325 +$684 (+42%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1,634 $1,787 +$153 (+9%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $1,118 $1,227 +$109 (+10%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,181 $1,182 +$1 (+0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $872 $885 +$13 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 57¢ $916 $799 −$116 (-13%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $771 $788 +$17 (+2%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $778 $714 −$63 (-8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 28¢ $401 $505 +$104 (+26%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $351 $500 +$149 (+42%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $326 $376 +$49 (+15%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $363 $366 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $334 $364 +$30 (+9%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $283 $330 +$47 (+17%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 22¢ $255 $291 +$36 (+14%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 59¢ $222 $287 +$65 (+29%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 28¢ $192 $220 +$28 (+15%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 44¢ $221 $219 −$2 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $695 $216 −$479 (-69%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 24¢ $274 $214 −$60 (-22%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $207 +$156 (+305%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $600 $204 −$396 (-66%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ $652 $202 −$450 (-69%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $171 $156 −$15 (-9%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $355 $137 −$218 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $332 +$24 +7%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $487 +$874 +179%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $750 +$50 +7%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $1,242 −$33 -3%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $348 +$329 +95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $850 +$1,650 +194%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +81%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,071 +$73 +7%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $801 −$350 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 14 $46 +$4 +10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 29 $5 +$95 +1775%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 1m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $52 2m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 2m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 26m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 27m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 31m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 31m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 38m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 39m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 40m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $938 54m
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $72 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $125 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $6 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $77 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $67 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $334 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $47 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $84 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $514 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $200 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $24 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,532.30 · official $15,532.20 (match) · 553 history records