Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x011d…442b sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$242 (+32%) realized +$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$430
world 26% −$195
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +165.3% +140.0% 100% 100% +140.0%
≤90d 5 +6.1% -4.0% 40% 40% +21.1%
all 5 +6.1% -4.0% 40% 40% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 40% +21.1%
10% -13.2% 40% +9.5%
15% -21.6% 40% -1.1%
20% -29.3% 40% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$115 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage67d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $132 +$218 +165%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 12 $219 +$361 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $42 −$41 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $132 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 37¢ $219 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $42 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $170 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.01 · official $51.01 (match) · 10 history records