Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x011d…0212 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 363d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% +$3
other 17% +$14
tech 15% −$11
crypto 15% +$5
world 10% +$19
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 31 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 26% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 26% -6.9%
10% -22.9% 16% -15.8%
15% -30.4% 13% -23.9%
20% -37.2% 10% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

363d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage363d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $87 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 17 above $600? Nov 21 $27 −$5 -20%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $205? Nov 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $210? Nov 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 5AM ET Sep 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 3PM ET Aug 23 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $4200 on August 20? Aug 21 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20? Aug 21 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? Aug 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20? Aug 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $43 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10AM ET Aug 04 $10 $0 +2%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Aug 03 $2 +$1 +64%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Jul 26 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6AM ET Jul 22 $10 $0 +2%
Joe Biden pre-debate Ambien use confirmed? Jul 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET Jul 21 $9 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 1PM ET Jul 21 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 9AM ET Jul 21 $48 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 20, 6AM ET Jul 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.? Jun 29 $63 +$15 +24%
Will Haiti beat Trinidad and Tobago? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 23 $40 +$8 +20%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Jun 19 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $88 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $87 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 17 above $600? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 208d
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 17 above $600? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 208d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $205? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 210d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 10 above $210? BUY No 89¢ $100 223d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 5AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 288d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 298d
Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? BUY Down 29¢ $3 301d
Ethereum above $4200 on August 20? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 301d
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 20? BUY Down 50¢ $10 301d
Bitcoin above $114K on August 20? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 301d
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 318d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 71¢ $28 324d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Down 61¢ $2 326d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 75¢ $15 326d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 85¢ $26 330d
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 330d
Joe Biden pre-debate Ambien use confirmed? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 330d
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 330d
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 330d
Ethereum Up or Down - July 21, 2PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.62 · official $89.62 (match) · 73 history records