Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0118…571a crypto 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 17% -8.2%
≤90d 6 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 17% -8.2%
all 6 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 17% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 17% -8.2%
10% -26.8% 17% -17.0%
15% -33.9% 17% -25.0%
20% -40.4% 17% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $127 −$17 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $104 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $203 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$15 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records