Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

01 0x0118…1366 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$49 (+4%) realized +$62 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$170per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-0.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+9.6%	-0.8%	100%	0%	-0.8%
≤30d	1	+9.6%	-0.8%	100%	0%	-0.8%
≤90d	1	+9.6%	-0.8%	100%	0%	-0.8%
all	1	+9.6%	-0.8%	100%	0%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.8%	0%	-0.8%
10%	-10.3%	0%	-10.3%
15%	-19.0%	0%	-19.0%
20%	-26.9%	0%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$669

Realized+$62

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions6

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$170

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	66¢	$200	$187	−$13 (-6%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$33	$32	−$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Yes	21¢	24¢	$23	$27	+$4 (+17%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$26	$25	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$501	+$48	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$34	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$27	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$202	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$24	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$202	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	91¢	$501	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.68 · official $668.68 (match) · 8 history records