Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0117…c0ff other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 28% +$11
politics 12% +$2
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 62 +0.3% -9.2% 23% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -8.2%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×10.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.8 per $1 lost it wins $7.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage326d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 58¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $35 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $54 +$10 +19%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $51 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $20 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $15 10d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $18 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $20 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $12 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $27 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $34 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $31 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $29 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records