Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

01
0x0115…ac79
sports · 635 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,121 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,009 · open −$117
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$340
Realized−$3,009
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses325 / 300
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions10
Markets (closed)625 / 635
History coverage99d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 10 History 625 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$380
14 days−$331
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $68 $65 −$3 (-4%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes 62¢ 50¢ $79 $64 −$16 (-20%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 64¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 41¢ 37¢ $32 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will Alisson Becker win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Russell 87¢ 68¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 74¢ 14¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-82%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $78 $2 −$76 (-97%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Yes 39¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 24¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5 Under 60¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 31¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage MOUZ 66¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? No 66¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Over 3.5 85¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 24¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Londrina EC vs. Vila Nova FC: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic Pistons 40¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs G2 63¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $29 +$4 +12%
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $41 +$56 +138%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $158 −$3 -2%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 12 $20 −$17 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $62 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $96 −$15 -15%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $35 +$19 +53%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -5%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 11 $45 −$6 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 10 $350 −$325 -93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $249 −$92 -37%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $35 +$8 +22%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 07 $30 −$23 -78%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $28 +$5 +19%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 Jun 06 $93 +$1 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $51 +$8 +15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026? Jun 04 $40 −$9 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 03 $56 −$56 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $40 +$10 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $76 −$27 -35%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 03 $40 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $38 +$2 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $46 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $78 +$4 +6%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 03 $85 +$4 +4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $52 −$6 -12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $112 −$111 -99%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 03 $27 −$27 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $43 +$6 +13%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $45 +$8 +17%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 03 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $74 +$32 +43%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $44 +$8 +17%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $79 −$37 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 38% −$2,255
other 23% −$341
crypto 13% −$311
world 13% −$249
politics 10% −$93
finance 2% +$94
culture 1% +$13
tech 0% +$43
economics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 58¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 22¢ $60 1h
Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $33 2h
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 2h
Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 99¢ $34 2h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 55¢ $69 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 15¢ $41 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $17 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 5h
Will Red Bull get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $30 6h
Will Ferrari get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $29 6h
Will Mercedes get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 7h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 41¢ $41 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $35 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $20 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $6 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $42 26h
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL No 14¢ $3 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $17 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $5 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $10 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $17 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $37 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 72¢ $37 26h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 68¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.9% -24.0% 42% 38% -33.5%
≤30d 139 -14.6% -22.7% 52% 42% -13.0%
≤90d 593 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 45% -18.2%
all 625 -8.7% -17.4% 52% 45% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 45% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 33% -25.2%
15% -32.5% 21% -32.4%
20% -39.1% 13% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.79 · official $339.79 (match) · 2300 history records