Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0112…ff3a crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% $0
politics 12% −$1
crypto 11% $0
sports 8% −$3
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 14 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.5%
10% -21.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage121d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $300 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $10 −$2 -17%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $10 −$3 -33%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $17 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $138 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $152 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $58 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $111 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $111 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 100d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 185 history records