Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0111…2f29 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+11%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -25.8% -32.9% 55% 41% -33.9%
≤30d 22 -25.8% -32.9% 55% 41% -33.9%
≤90d 22 -25.8% -32.9% 55% 41% -33.9%
all 22 -25.8% -32.9% 55% 41% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 41% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 36% -40.3%
15% -45.2% 27% -46.0%
20% -50.6% 14% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $63 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$18 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records