Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:30:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x0111…dd27 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-4%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$1,004
14 days+$769
30 days+$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$710
sports 49% +$1,447
world 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +50.8% +36.5% 62% 62% +46.9%
≤30d 17 +45.3% +31.4% 59% 59% +22.8%
≤90d 17 +45.3% +31.4% 59% 59% +22.8%
all 17 +45.3% +31.4% 59% 59% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.4% 59% +22.8%
10% +18.9% 59% +11.1%
15% +7.4% 59% +0.3%
20% -3.1% 53% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$123 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 24
History coverage149d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 43¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 76¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $139 +$70 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $151 +$899 +596%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $131 +$168 +128%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $222 +$143 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $79 +$121 +152%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 +$32 +120%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $89 +$111 +124%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 12 $540 −$235 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $89 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 23h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $102 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. BUY 7¢ $11 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombi BUY 20¢ $102 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $300 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 12¢ $123 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina SELL 9¢ $21 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 12¢ $28 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $100 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $61 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $131 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $61 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $79 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $30 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $65 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $89 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $110 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.68 · official $219.68 (match) · 54 history records