Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0111…60f7 economics 19 markets active 4h ago coverage 231d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,657 (-37%) realized −$14,718 · open −$4,939
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,795per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$1,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 92% −$12,249
crypto 4% +$155
sports 4% +$1,077
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 0% -2.6%
≤30d 3 +23.4% +11.7% 100% 33% +9.3%
≤90d 3 +23.4% +11.7% 100% 33% +9.3%
all 9 +1.2% -8.4% 78% 33% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 33% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 22% -33.7%
15% -25.2% 22% -40.1%
20% -32.5% 11% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
97.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$4,061 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$4,314
Realized−$14,718
Unrealized−$4,939
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)9 / 19
History coverage231d
Avg bet$2,795
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4,100 $4,074 −$26 (-1%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $905 $49 −$857 (-95%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1,520 $42 −$1,478 (-97%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $435 $32 −$403 (-93%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $335 $30 −$304 (-91%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $812 $29 −$783 (-96%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $399 $24 −$375 (-94%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $458 $13 −$445 (-97%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $189 $13 −$176 (-93%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $102 $9 −$93 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $2,603 +$198 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,923 +$1,077 +56%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $2,342 +$155 +7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 17 $2,743 −$1,627 -59%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 09 $8,637 −$6,496 -75%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 17 $630 +$135 +21%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $11,415 +$404 +4%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Dec 01 $1,633 +$24 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 01 $106 +$51 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $4,137 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 4h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 4h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 4h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 4h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 4h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $30 4h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 4h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 4h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $37 4h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 4h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $23 4h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 4h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 4h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,139 4h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,923 19d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,342 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL Yes 6¢ $1,116 130d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1,227 136d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 16¢ $96 138d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 15¢ $2,647 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,314.48 · official $4,314.98 (match) · 1938 history records