Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x010d…d0e6 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$1,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$15
politics 17% +$13
world 15% +$15
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 33% -1.0%
≤30d 3 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 33% -1.0%
≤90d 3 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 33% -1.0%
all 3 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 33% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 33% -1.0%
10% -11.1% 0% -10.5%
15% -19.7% 0% -19.1%
20% -27.6% 0% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,130
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)3 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 83¢ $259 $259 +$0 (+0%)
Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch? No 58¢ 58¢ $154 $154 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $121 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? No 73¢ 72¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 85¢ 87¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $56 $67 +$11 (+20%)
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? No 89¢ 86¢ $68 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? No 50¢ 40¢ $79 $62 −$17 (-21%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $54 $62 +$9 (+16%)
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 22¢ 19¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Drake be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+31%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+118%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 33¢ 5¢ $17 $2 −$14 (-86%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 27 $78 +$7 +9%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 27 $122 +$16 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $68 6m
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 19¢ $4 34m
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 9¢ $12 5h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 7h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $76 10h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 22¢ $12 11h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 60¢ $24 12h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 61¢ $10 12h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 60¢ $25 12h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 12h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 60¢ $25 12h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 12h
Felix Protocol FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 64¢ $18 22h
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL Yes 67¢ $100 23h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 56¢ $19 23h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $17 23h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 50¢ $81 23h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK SELL Yes 24¢ $6 25h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 100¢ $118 25h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 22¢ $5 26h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 22¢ $14 26h
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $91 27h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 95¢ $113 28h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $73 28h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $30 30h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? BUY No 73¢ $118 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,129.80 · official $1,133.25 (match) · 53 history records