Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x010b…5f66 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-14%) realized −$124 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$39
crypto 16% −$30
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.0% -6.8% 53% 47% -3.7%
≤30d 30 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 37% -26.8%
≤90d 30 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 37% -26.8%
all 30 -21.6% -29.1% 40% 37% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 37% -26.8%
10% -35.9% 33% -33.8%
15% -42.1% 33% -40.2%
20% -47.8% 27% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 64¢ 100¢ $38 $59 +$21 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $25 +$24 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $45 +$30 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $18 −$13 -71%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $76 −$45 -60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $36 +$23 +65%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$14 +226%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$9 -84%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $12 +$11 +96%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 29 $39 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 29 $21 +$3 +13%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $21 +$9 +41%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $51 −$20 -39%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $38 +$4 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $15 −$13 -83%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $22 −$16 -72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $37 −$4 -10%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $42 −$3 -8%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $18 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $20 52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $75 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 60¢ $25 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $13 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 52¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $8 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $5 7h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $12 7h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 25¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $7 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 87¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 11¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 89¢ $35 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 18¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 69¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 56¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $5 21h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 64¢ $15 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 45¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.31 · official $70.48 · 149 history records