Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
01 0x010b…6649 sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 593d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$7
tech 25% $0
other 3% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 20% -5.9%
≤30d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 20% -5.9%
≤90d 5 +4.5% -5.5% 80% 20% -5.9%
all 6 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 17% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 17% -5.9%
10% -18.0% 0% -14.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -23.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.73 per $1 lost it wins $11.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage593d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $92 +$4 +4%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $37 +$4 +11%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 05 $0 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $96 22m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $92 2h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF SELL Yes 89¢ $4 10h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF SELL Yes 89¢ $1 11h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF SELL Yes 89¢ $1 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 14h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF SELL Yes 89¢ $1 21h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 86¢ $7 29h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF SELL Yes 87¢ $44 41h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl SELL Yes 81¢ $41 41h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 88¢ $45 2d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 72¢ $37 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $43 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $32 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 3d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W SELL Yes 95¢ $11 3d
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 4d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 592d
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 592d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.31 · official $109.31 (match) · 24 history records