Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
01 0x0109…ecc3 crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$646 (-9%) realized −$646 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%72W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$331
sports 14% −$15
other 12% −$131
world 2% −$12
finance 1% −$48
culture 1% −$8
tech 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +101.7% +82.5% 62% 62% +50.9%
≤30d 13 +101.7% +82.5% 62% 62% +50.9%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 31% -49.0%
all 170 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 26% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 26% -16.5%
10% -28.7% 20% -24.5%
15% -35.6% 17% -31.8%
20% -41.9% 13% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses72 / 98
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 176
History coverage193d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$13 +123%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $12 +$10 +79%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $99 +$51 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$23 +66%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/ Jun 23 $10 +$14 +136%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Team Jun 23 $3 +$20 +657%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +595%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $81 −$40 -50%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $26 −$24 -93%
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Amer May 12 $103 −$41 -40%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 01 $343 −$343 -100%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs Younglings (BO3) - Exort Series Conten May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs EC BANGA (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play- Apr 30 $25 −$1 -3%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 23 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 21 $417 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 20 $150 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 20 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 0m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $111 8m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $48 16m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $39 18m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 23m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 65¢ $58 33m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 33¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $12 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Wil BUY 26¢ $7 12h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O BUY 23¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $4 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/ BUY 42¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Team BUY 13¢ $3 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-3.5) BUY 15¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 38d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $4 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $19.44 · 449 history records