Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
01 0x0107…8c74 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$398 (+144%) realized +$402 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$8
sports 26% +$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+92.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +112.6% +92.4% 33% 33% +162.9%
≤30d 9 +112.6% +92.4% 33% 33% +162.9%
≤90d 9 +112.6% +92.4% 33% 33% +162.9%
all 9 +112.6% +92.4% 33% 33% +162.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +92.4% 33% +162.9%
10% +74.0% 33% +137.7%
15% +57.2% 33% +114.8%
20% +41.8% 33% +93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +191% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt +191% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$18 · ×8.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$402
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Yes 28¢ 32¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 18¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rodri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$97 +473%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $21 +$122 +596%
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$279 +543%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $20 43m
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 44m
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 44m
Rodri: 1+ assists SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 1h
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2h
Rodri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3h
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3h
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 3h
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 20h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.18 · official $66.18 (match) · 17 history records