Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00fe…52e2 crypto 849 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,326 (-18%) realized −$5,308 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%282W / 565L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day94.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$283
weather 31% −$197
other 9% −$31
sports 4% −$32
world 4% −$100
politics 3% −$26
tech 3% −$41
culture 1% +$9
economics 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -1.4% -10.8% 15% 7% -12.4%
≤30d 847 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 18% -11.7%
≤90d 847 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 18% -11.7%
all 847 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 18% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 18% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 7% -20.1%
15% -27.0% 1% -27.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$5,308
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses282 / 565
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)847 / 849
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day94.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 847 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? No 86¢ 82¢ $430 $412 −$18 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $223 $223 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? Jun 30 $312 −$101 -32%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 29 $604 −$48 -8%
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 29 $223 −$3 -1%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 29 $115 −$76 -66%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 29 $94 +$11 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? Jun 29 $88 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $34 −$12 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 28? Jun 28 $85 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Jun 28 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $45 −$9 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $46 −$1 -1%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $95 +$45 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 Jun 27 $125 −$23 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Jun 27 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Jun 27 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Jun 27 $26 −$9 -33%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July? Jun 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $39 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 +$10 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $59 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28? Jun 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Jun 26 $366 −$15 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28? Jun 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, Jun 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026? Jun 26 $41 −$6 -14%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 26 $144 −$14 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $20 −$8 -39%
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 34%-36%? Jun 26 $42 −$5 -12%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat? Jun 26 $27 −$2 -8%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 26 $39 −$4 -11%
Will Delta Q2 passenger load factor be between 83% and 85%? Jun 26 $43 −$22 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 27? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 27? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $49 −$3 -6%
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Jun 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $52 −$4 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $58 +$7 +11%
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat? Jun 26 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 26 $29 +$15 +52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 26 $53 +$3 +5%
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? Jun 26 $41 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 26 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 30? BUY No 94¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? SELL No 36¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? SELL No 53¢ $157 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? BUY No 86¢ $173 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? BUY No 86¢ $54 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? BUY No 86¢ $181 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $151 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 30? BUY No 86¢ $22 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $17 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $37 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $34 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 30? BUY No 68¢ $8 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 23¢ $27 10h
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 50¢ $50 10h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 15¢ $19 12h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 16¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 28? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 28? SELL No 76¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.47 · official $630.27 (match) · 3500 history records