Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00fe…c990 world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$7
other 28% −$1
politics 20% $0
sports 14% −$13
economics 2% −$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.5% -6.4% 33% 17% -8.0%
≤30d 22 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 68 +0.2% -9.3% 32% 1% -9.3%
all 69 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage490d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 +$3 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $8 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $30 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $24 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $18 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $135 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $62 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $28 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $38 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $35 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $35 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $20 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 30¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records