Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00fd…5469 crypto 621 markets active 10h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%136W / 485L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 431 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 18% -10.5%
≤30d 621 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 18% -10.5%
≤90d 621 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 18% -10.5%
all 621 -4.4% -13.5% 22% 18% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 18% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 12% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 8% -26.9%
20% -36.2% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses136 / 485
Open positions0
Markets (closed)621 / 621
History coverage25d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 621 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$9 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $60.00 (match) · 1905 history records