Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x00f4…36f9 other 882 markets active 11h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,000 (-1%) realized −$1,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%857W / 19L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$1,065
other 36% +$121
sports 12% +$1
weather 8% +$10
tech 6% +$8
politics 0% −$20
culture 0% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$60
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 58 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 327 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 876 -0.7% -10.1% 98% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 1% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$91 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses857 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)876 / 882
History coverage225d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 876 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $262 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $314 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? Jun 21 $315 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $260 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $331 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $314 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $322 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $312 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $312 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $154 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $207 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $329 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $315 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 06 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 76°F or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 4? Jun 05 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June Jun 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will "A Good Girl's Guide to Murder: Season 2" be the top global Netfl Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $330 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $330 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $320 10h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 20h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $80 27h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $315 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $314 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $315 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $260 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $331 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $314 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $322 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $312 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $320 9d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $312 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $151 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 99¢ $2 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 11d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $160 11d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun BUY No 100¢ $151 11d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.03 · official $14.03 (match) · 1940 history records