Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x00ee…f181 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-3%) realized −$536 · open +$509
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$21
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$489
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-70.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -55.9% -60.1% 33% 33% -67.0%
≤30d 4 -66.9% -70.1% 25% 25% -68.0%
≤90d 4 -66.9% -70.1% 25% 25% -68.0%
all 4 -66.9% -70.1% 25% 25% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.1% 25% -68.0%
10% -72.9% 25% -71.0%
15% -75.5% 0% -73.8%
20% -77.9% 0% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,195
Realized−$536
Unrealized+$509
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $685 $1,195 +$509 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $154 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $140 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $150 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $12 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.63 · official $1,196.30 (match) · 36 history records