Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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00 0x00ec…687f crypto 1246 markets active 7h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$996 (-2%) realized −$964 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate92%1135W / 104L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,362now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$115
14 days+$313
30 days−$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$383
sports 11% +$2
other 2% −$10
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 192 -27.7% -34.6% 62% 1% -11.0%
≤90d 1239 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 13% -10.0%
all 1239 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 13% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 6% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 4% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$19 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1,362
Realized−$964
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1135 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1239 / 1246
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $553 $538 −$15 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $289 $296 +$8 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $234 $236 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Yes 97¢ 91¢ $194 $182 −$12 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $58 $50 −$8 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 96¢ 88¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 95¢ 84¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $354 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $414 −$7 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 14 $71 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 14 $361 −$14 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 14 $132 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $137 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $447 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $236 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $455 −$14 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $467 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $339 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $418 +$27 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $116 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $437 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $199 +$11 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $479 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $348 +$18 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $365 +$10 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $129 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $132 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $474 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $211 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $263 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $411 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $273 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $706 +$38 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $381 +$13 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $254 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $657 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $643 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $402 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $685 +$13 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $229 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $435 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $469 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $585 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $84 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 93¢ $58 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 96¢ $18 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $87 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $59 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $26 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $87 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $131 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $197 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $290 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $58 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,362.46 · official $1,362.46 (match) · 3500 history records