Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00ec…a4ff crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized +$7 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.3% +8.9% 61% 52% -3.6%
≤30d 23 +20.3% +8.9% 61% 52% -3.6%
≤90d 23 +20.3% +8.9% 61% 52% -3.6%
all 23 +20.3% +8.9% 61% 52% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.9% 52% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.5% 48% -12.8%
15% -11.1% 26% -21.3%
20% -19.8% 17% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 29¢ 10¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $126 −$23 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$70 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $101 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.05 · official $18.53 · 63 history records