Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x00e0…0ca4 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$1
sports 19% $0
other 8% +$10
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.3%
all 19 +25.1% +13.2% 42% 5% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 5% -7.8%
10% +2.4% 5% -16.6%
15% -7.5% 5% -24.7%
20% -16.6% 5% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage458d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $91 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $41 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $4 −$1 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 +$10 +547%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 20 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $46 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $42 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $46 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $46 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.93 · official $29.93 (match) · 83 history records