Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00de…c6a5 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$16
politics 22% −$7
culture 6% $0
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$799) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage92d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 Jun 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,795 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 25 $1,103 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $1,107 $0 +0%
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,117 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn May 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the e May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $23 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $769 −$3 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $45 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $57 $0 -0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 20 $740 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $709 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $712 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $713 −$2 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Apr 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 27 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,063 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,021 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $908 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $248 2d
Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,093 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $767 3d
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $303 3d
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records