Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00da…8dbe crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%93W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 31% -12.1%
≤30d 173 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 35% -14.1%
≤90d 173 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 35% -14.1%
all 173 -11.3% -19.8% 54% 35% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 35% -14.1%
10% -27.5% 25% -22.3%
15% -34.5% 16% -29.8%
20% -40.9% 8% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses93 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage25d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records