Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00da…1ce5 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$57
other 25% −$8
politics 24% −$10
culture 7% −$4
finance 6% −$15
world 5% +$19
economics 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -16.3%
≤90d 74 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 1% -10.0%
all 158 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage164d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $401 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $808 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 01 $50 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 01 $33 +$13 +40%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $239 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $159 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 21 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $197 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $284 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $314 −$8 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $63 $0 -0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 09 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $52 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 8h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 7d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $35 7d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $24 7d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $46 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $46 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $56 37d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $56 38d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 50d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $16 51d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 51d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 51d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 51d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $48 51d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $48 51d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $55 51d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $55 51d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $55 51d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $55 52d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 52d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 52d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 52d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 52d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 53d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 55d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 55d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 55d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 55d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 665 history records