Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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00 0x00da…caec crypto 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized −$23 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate84%391W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$53
sports 18% +$46
other 6% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 50% +6.9%
≤30d 464 -1.8% -11.2% 84% 21% -10.6%
≤90d 466 -1.8% -11.1% 84% 22% -10.5%
all 466 -1.8% -11.1% 84% 22% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 22% -10.5%
10% -19.6% 5% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 4% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses391 / 75
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)466 / 468
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $28 $80 +$52 (+186%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $32 −$9 -27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$15 -72%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $21 −$11 -54%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $24 +$6 +24%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $22 +$13 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$36 +156%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$4 +212%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $23 +$7 +30%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $29 54m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $26 56m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $29 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 39¢ $23 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $32 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $6 22h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) SELL South Africa 7¢ $10 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 22h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 15¢ $16 22h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa 15¢ $6 22h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 22h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $30 24h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 10¢ $1 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $19 24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 44h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 44h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 44h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $3 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $22 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $6 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 7¢ $2 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $30 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 21¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.62 · official $88.62 (match) · 1029 history records