Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
00 0x00da…a87e sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-6%) realized −$130 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%27W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days+$127
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$285
other 13% +$96
world 1% −$32
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 49% -4.5%
≤30d 35 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 49% -4.5%
≤90d 44 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 52% -15.5%
all 44 +1.7% -8.0% 61% 52% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 52% -15.5%
10% -16.8% 43% -23.6%
15% -24.8% 34% -31.0%
20% -32.2% 23% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$38 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses27 / 17
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage75d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 39¢ $148 $109 −$39 (-26%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $58 +$31 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$19 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $33 +$11 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $59 +$21 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $173 +$27 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $63 +$37 +59%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 +$9 +75%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $78 +$13 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $75 +$24 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$15 +47%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 +$8 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $361 +$39 +11%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $90 −$2 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $373 +$27 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 +$22 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $141 +$59 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 04 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $2 +$3 +113%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Apr 04 $11 +$9 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $3 +$2 +59%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $308 −$308 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $64 +$3 +4%
Spread: Magic (-6.5) Apr 04 $3 +$3 +90%
Spread: Magic (-7.5) Apr 04 $3 +$3 +109%
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5 Apr 04 $3 +$4 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $9 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $58 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $150 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $17 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $33 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $80 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 60¢ $12 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $17 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $59 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $31 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $54 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $173 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.60 · official $157.60 (match) · 91 history records