Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00d8…e853 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 39L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 26% −$5
world 13% −$1
economics 7% −$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$902) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage87d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 25 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $1,165 −$6 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Jun 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $1,218 −$3 -0%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w May 14 $927 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $886 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $873 $0 -0%
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec genera May 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 12 $934 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Apr 07 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $158 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 11m
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $96 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $45 30m
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 49m
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 99¢ $14 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? SELL No 100¢ $59 45h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 45h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 45h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 45h
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 46h
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,091 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,067 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 2d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $874 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 2d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,131 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $1,159 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records