Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x00cb…3992 sports 1414 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,228 (-12%) realized −$7,315 · open +$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate87%1236W / 177L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,296
7 days−$5,217
14 days−$5,216
30 days−$5,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$5,842
other 16% −$129
world 3% −$261
crypto 2% −$61
politics 1% −$29
finance 1% $0
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -21.0% -28.5% 51% 48% -30.6%
≤30d 93 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 41% -30.0%
≤90d 1413 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 8% -18.8%
all 1413 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 8% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 8% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 2% -26.6%
15% -27.0% 2% -33.7%
20% -34.1% 1% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$75 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$7,315
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1236 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1413 / 1414
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 66¢ 79¢ $440 $526 +$87 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $397 +$48 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $277 +$120 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $500 −$494 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $500 −$491 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $802 +$207 +26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$300 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $337 +$764 +226%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $203 +$135 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $156 −$153 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $124 +$32 +26%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $162 −$159 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $730 −$730 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $528 +$72 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $407 +$569 +140%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $456 +$156 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $311 +$142 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $366 +$400 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $457 −$457 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,502 +$59 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $998 +$729 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $154 −$151 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $142 −$8 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $165 −$144 -87%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $304 −$148 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $220 +$96 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $699 +$163 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $185 +$20 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $365 +$134 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $490 +$60 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $274 +$216 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $180 +$92 +51%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $164 +$18 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $126 +$37 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$26 +26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $658 −$655 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $563 +$96 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $474 +$88 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $267 +$73 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $117 +$17 +15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $232 +$34 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $444 58m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 89¢ $397 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $397 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $277 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $500 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $500 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $508 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $802 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $337 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 75¢ $338 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $156 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $156 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 79¢ $124 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $203 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $162 39h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $204 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $300 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $490 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 73¢ $702 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 73¢ $13 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 73¢ $13 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 73¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $528 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $456 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $407 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $311 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $366 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $323 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.24 · official $519.57 · 3500 history records