Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:35:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c8…0d7e sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-8%) realized −$136 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$35
14 days−$140
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$92
other 3% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 9 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -27.5%
≤90d 9 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -27.5%
all 9 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 33% -27.5%
10% -47.3% 33% -34.4%
15% -52.4% 33% -40.8%
20% -57.0% 33% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$69 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Uzbekistan 95¢ 97¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $134 −$132 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $122 +$118 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $91 +$82 +90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $93 −$92 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $77 +$72 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$6 -43%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 31m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 32m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 35m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 39m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 41m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 43m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 55m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 56m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 58m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 59m
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 95¢ $119 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $134 38h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $122 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $103 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $91 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $93 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $77 8d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 9d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $47 9d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 9d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.27 · official $120.27 (match) · 30 history records