Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c8…c5be crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$490 (-11%) realized +$164 · open −$654
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$271
crypto 43% −$728
politics 7% +$65
sports 6% −$115
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +27.8%
≤30d 2 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +27.8%
≤90d 2 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +27.8%
all 23 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 35% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 35% -5.2%
10% -33.5% 30% -14.3%
15% -39.9% 22% -22.6%
20% -45.8% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$40 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$654
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage228d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $161 $179 +$18 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $500 $132 −$369 (-74%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 43¢ $180 $130 −$50 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $200 $60 −$140 (-70%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 +$22 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $302 +$144 +48%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January? Feb 13 $491 +$43 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Feb 13 $300 +$158 +53%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 24 $100 −$94 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 24 $10 −$7 -72%
Magic vs. Pacers Jan 04 $20 +$12 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Dec 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $700 +$201 +29%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $12 +$5 +41%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 14 $398 −$47 -12%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7? Dec 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? Dec 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7? Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Dec 04 $100 −$10 -10%
Will ZKsync win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Nov 27 $10 +$46 +462%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Nov 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bruins vs. Kings Nov 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 22 $220 +$75 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $125 12m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $162 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $182 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $302 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $240 104d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 106d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 106d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $260 111d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 124d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 132d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 132d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 152d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 152d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 162d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January? BUY Yes 92¢ $491 172d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 172d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 172d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 172d
Magic vs. Pacers BUY Magic 62¢ $20 176d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $20 176d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $901 176d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $90 183d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $500 193d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $351 193d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $10 203d
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 203d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 203d
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 203d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? SELL No 72¢ $90 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.13 · official $685.33 (match) · 155 history records