Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c8…a75f sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,350 (+9%) realized +$1,136 · open +$214
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%74W / 84L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$39
14 days+$336
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,448
sports 27% −$1,071
tech 11% +$896
crypto 6% −$121
world 5% −$101
culture 5% +$279
weather 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.6% +11.8% 50% 50% +7.9%
≤30d 12 +57.3% +42.3% 67% 67% +30.3%
≤90d 77 -25.1% -32.3% 34% 32% -16.2%
all 158 +11.4% +0.8% 47% 44% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 44% -2.3%
10% -8.9% 41% -11.7%
15% -17.7% 39% -20.2%
20% -25.7% 37% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$63 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$1,253
Realized+$1,136
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses74 / 84
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)158 / 168
History coverage627d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $210 $332 +$123 (+58%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 92¢ $103 $225 +$122 (+119%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $133 +$32 (+32%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 50¢ 53¢ $120 $127 +$7 (+6%)
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 39¢ 52¢ $78 $104 +$26 (+33%)
Decibel FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 46¢ 51¢ $92 $102 +$10 (+11%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $106 $73 −$33 (-31%)
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 52¢ 27¢ $98 $52 −$46 (-47%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 24¢ 15¢ $73 $45 −$28 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$32 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$69 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $54 −$53 -98%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$55 +122%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $46 +$54 +119%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $67 −$16 -24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $83 +$217 +263%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $612 −$352 -58%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 29 $275 +$176 +64%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 23 $111 +$109 +98%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 23 $260 +$267 +103%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 19 $22 −$22 -100%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 15 $77 +$18 +24%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 11 $74 −$69 -93%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $148 +$39 +26%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4? May 05 $80 +$91 +113%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April May 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $32 −$31 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $46 +$54 +116%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $46 +$52 +114%
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 25 $242 −$242 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 17 $75 −$75 -100%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $56 −$22 -39%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Apr 08 $142 −$122 -86%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 05 $75 −$8 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $69 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 03 $89 −$8 -9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $82 −$2 -2%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 01 $42 +$5 +11%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 01 $445 +$26 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Apr 01 $75 −$7 -9%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "MLB Opening Night: Yankees vs. Giants" be the top US Netflix sho Apr 01 $70 +$84 +120%
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $75 +$165 +220%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $128 +$75 +59%
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $188 +$135 +72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $50 +$50 +100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 28 $104 +$82 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $122 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $54 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $51 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 45¢ $46 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 41¢ $67 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $59 10d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 10d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 10d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 10d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 10d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $139 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 20d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $41 23d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 23d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,253.07 · official $1,253.07 (match) · 1288 history records