Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c8…2468 sports 381 markets active 1h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-9%) realized −$50 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%168W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$1
other 23% −$30
world 13% +$15
crypto 6% −$11
politics 5% −$8
tech 3% −$10
finance 2% −$1
culture 1% −$2
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤30d 10 +32.9% +20.2% 70% 70% +5.9%
≤90d 21 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 48% -29.3%
all 371 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 44% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -18.9%
10% -23.0% 41% -26.7%
15% -30.4% 37% -33.8%
20% -37.2% 33% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses168 / 203
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)371 / 381
History coverage413d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+316%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 46¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 06 $6 −$5 -81%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1 $0 -49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 17 $1 $0 +45%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +69%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 May 09 $7 −$7 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo May 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Rangers Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1 +$2 +186%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 25 $1 $0 +47%
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Mar 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 01 $1 $0 +28%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 01 $1 $0 +45%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Sharks vs. Flames Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Canadiens Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Hurricanes Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Kraken vs. Utah Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Sharks vs. Red Wings Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Sharks vs. Lightning Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Feb 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Avalanche vs. Red Wings Feb 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Maple Leafs vs. Jets Jan 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Predators vs. Avalanche Jan 22 $1 +$3 +257%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Blue Jackets Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Sharks Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kraken vs. Devils Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins Jan 16 $1 +$1 +138%
Stars vs. Sharks Jan 16 $1 +$1 +144%
Sharks vs. Capitals Jan 16 $1 +$2 +150%
Capitals vs. Blackhawks Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ducks vs. Sabres Jan 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY No 55¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $15 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $1 9d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 24d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 37d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $5 37d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 37d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 39d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 46¢ $1 39d
Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $1 39d
Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 52¢ $1 39d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 75d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY No 31¢ $5 83d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 87¢ $1 83d
Penguins vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 67¢ $1 91d
Kings vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 49¢ $1 91d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 91d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 69¢ $1 91d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $1 91d
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice H BUY Yes 38¢ $1 125d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 55¢ $1 125d
Big Game: Coin Toss BUY Heads 88¢ $1 127d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 127d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 127d
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 127d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $1 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.89 · official $27.89 (match) · 786 history records