Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c6…4975 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$10
other 25% −$4
economics 23% −$4
sports 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 76 -3.1% -12.3% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage636d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 07 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31? Nov 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will De’Aaron Fox lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
New Netherlands election called in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Michael Pittman Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Carson Beck win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Texas A&M win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $46 30d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $47 30d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $47 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 38d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 40d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 40d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 45d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 45d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 48d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 49d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 52d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 52d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 70d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $49 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $50 72d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 77d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 77d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 81d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 82d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $50 90d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $50 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records