Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00c4…e285 sports 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-3%) realized −$167 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days+$56
14 days−$4
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$479
other 39% +$251
world 4% −$137
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 37% -7.5%
≤30d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 36% -15.5%
≤90d 78 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 31% -16.3%
all 85 -7.7% -16.5% 38% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -15.6%
10% -24.5% 31% -23.7%
15% -31.8% 27% -31.1%
20% -38.4% 25% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$34 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 53
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage234d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $456 −$131 -29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $132 −$72 -55%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $327 +$202 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 +$106 +48%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $145 +$77 +53%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $37 −$12 -32%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $92 +$53 +57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $49 +$32 +64%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $283 −$197 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $193 −$21 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in Jun 16 $4 +$10 +269%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $234 −$136 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $208 +$185 +89%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$22 -75%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 +$2 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$26 -77%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -78%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$6 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $16 +$9 +60%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $27 −$11 -41%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $24 −$18 -74%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $62 −$27 -44%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 31 $86 −$46 -53%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $56 +$7 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $35 +$44 +128%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $19 +$16 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $27 −$18 -66%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $98 −$79 -80%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $101 −$70 -69%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $134 −$51 -38%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $39 −$3 -7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $110 −$12 -11%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $88 +$26 +29%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $249 −$204 -82%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Apr 15 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $87 +$143 +165%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $66 −$56 -84%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $81 −$14 -17%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $56 +$25 +44%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $51 −$40 -78%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $47 −$9 -18%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $150 −$78 -52%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $112 +$84 +75%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $56 −$19 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $127 23m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 50¢ $325 33m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $456 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $132 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $529 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $327 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $221 3d
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma SELL Noah Karma 100¢ $221 3d
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma BUY Noah Karma 65¢ $145 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $92 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $49 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $171 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL 45¢ $172 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in SELL $13 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $38 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $38 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $88 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $87 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $197 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 49¢ $193 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in BUY $4 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $208 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.69 · official $124.69 (match) · 220 history records