Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
00 0x00c3…5787 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20 (+23%) realized +$14 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$20
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$25
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.3% +23.4% 100% 100% +22.7%
≤30d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 83% 83% +20.4%
≤90d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 83% 83% +20.4%
all 6 +13.3% +2.5% 83% 83% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 83% +20.4%
10% -7.3% 67% +8.8%
15% -16.3% 33% -1.7%
20% -24.5% 0% -11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.34 per $1 lost it wins $18.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $17 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.51 · official $35.51 (match) · 12 history records