Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00bd…1e9e sports 574 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$154 (-12%) realized −$153 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%280W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$123
14 days−$125
30 days−$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$83
other 29% −$16
crypto 21% −$52
world 3% −$12
finance 3% +$4
politics 2% −$5
culture 0% +$1
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -10.8% -19.3% 55% 54% -31.4%
≤30d 510 -15.0% -23.1% 53% 52% -26.9%
≤90d 535 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 51% -22.2%
all 535 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 51% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 51% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 40% -29.6%
15% -36.4% 32% -36.4%
20% -42.6% 24% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses280 / 255
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions39
Markets (closed)535 / 574
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 95¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+124%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 45¢ 98¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+118%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 80¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Over 81¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 94¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 90¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 48¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+51%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$4 +206%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$1 -30%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 60¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $1 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 35¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $1 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 10h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 10h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $1 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 12h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 90¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $2 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $2 12h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $2 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 12h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 82¢ $2 12h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 78¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.80 · official $58.80 (match) · 1112 history records