Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
00 0x00ba…c5ff crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$56 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$23
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$34
world 10% −$9
politics 3% +$1
finance 2% +$3
other 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -4.4% -13.5% 70% 46% -12.9%
≤30d 45 -1.0% -10.5% 76% 51% -9.1%
≤90d 46 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 52% -8.4%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 52% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 52% -8.4%
10% -18.3% 11% -17.2%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage36d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $34 $18 −$17 (-49%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $8 −$15 (-67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 89¢ 20¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$26 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $56 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 06 $8 +$1 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 21 $31 +$5 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $27 +$4 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $22 +$5 +22%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 18 $20 +$2 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $46 +$8 +17%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $17 +$7 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 36m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.35 · official $36.50 (match) · 187 history records