Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00b8…0418 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$610 (-27%) realized −$610 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$18
14 days−$160
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$734
other 3% +$53
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +48.7% +34.6% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤30d 20 -31.9% -38.4% 30% 30% -23.8%
≤90d 51 -39.5% -45.3% 27% 27% -41.8%
all 51 -39.5% -45.3% 27% 27% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 27% -41.8%
10% -50.5% 27% -47.3%
15% -55.3% 25% -52.4%
20% -59.7% 25% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage49d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 32¢ 32¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $32 +$86 +269%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $40 +$51 +126%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $168 −$160 -95%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 3 Winner Jun 01 $32 −$14 -43%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 May 31 $5 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 31 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner May 30 $27 −$5 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $58 −$37 -64%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $51 +$36 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $159 +$126 +79%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$20 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $5 +$8 +149%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner May 29 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 29 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner May 28 $23 +$36 +157%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 28 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 28 $11 +$9 +84%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 28 $30 −$2 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $30 +$17 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $25 −$5 -19%
Valorant: Team Evictix vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner May 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 27 $17 +$10 +60%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $34 −$34 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $35 −$9 -26%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 +$20 +68%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gro May 26 $10 +$19 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 26 $16 +$16 +101%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $32 −$31 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino May 25 $8 −$7 -98%
Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 May 25 $17 +$5 +28%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $113 −$42 -37%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $2 −$2 -97%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $400 −$159 -40%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $202 −$80 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $17 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $118 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $17 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 83¢ $91 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 36¢ $40 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $70 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 16¢ $7 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $168 13d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe BUY MODUS 41¢ $15 24d
Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 33¢ $15 26d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 3 Winner BUY LOUD 30¢ $5 27d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 3 Winner BUY LOUD 31¢ $7 27d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 3 Winner SELL LOUD 30¢ $17 27d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 3 Winner BUY LOUD 34¢ $20 27d
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 27d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 27d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $10 28d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $24 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $50 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 14¢ $4 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima SELL Brandon Nakashima 15¢ $19 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner BUY Sentinels 25¢ $2 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner BUY Sentinels 24¢ $3 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 3 Winner BUY FlyQuest 43¢ $22 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 77¢ $72 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 27¢ $15 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 49¢ $39 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.73 · official $16.73 (match) · 105 history records