Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00b7…af97 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$172 (-23%) realized −$160 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$12
other 39% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.8% -5.1% 29% 29% -18.4%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.1% 29% 29% -18.4%
≤90d 17 +4.8% -5.1% 29% 29% -18.4%
all 17 +4.8% -5.1% 29% 29% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 29% -18.4%
10% -14.2% 29% -26.2%
15% -22.5% 29% -33.4%
20% -30.1% 24% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$29 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 70¢ 64¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$187 +184%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 −$8 -26%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +42%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $11 +$73 +681%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +105%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $53 −$50 -94%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 70¢ $101 26m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 27m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 27m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $55 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $46 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $9 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 30h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 46h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $20 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.28 · official $156.28 (match) · 35 history records