Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00b6…424b other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 19% −$17
crypto 9% −$4
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.2%
all 51 -6.4% -15.4% 37% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -12.1%
10% -23.5% 0% -20.5%
15% -30.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $64 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 07 $1 −$1 -38%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? May 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Flying Mohawk win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Apr 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 29 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 24 $22 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $30 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $30 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $3 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $33 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $17 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $32 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $32 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.05 · official $33.05 (match) · 140 history records