trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Up | 63¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Down | 69¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +105% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | +40% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +26% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at CPAC conference on Saturday? | Feb 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21? | Feb 21 | $7 | +$2 | +23% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? | Feb 15 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31? | Jan 30 | $6 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 24-31? | Jan 29 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? | Jan 29 | $4 | −$2 | -39% |
| DeepSeek removed from App Store before March? | Jan 29 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 27 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-26? | Jan 26 | $2 | −$1 | -82% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -32.7% | -39.1% | 43% | 43% | -52.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -32.7% | -39.1% | 43% | 43% | -52.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -32.7% | -39.1% | 43% | 43% | -52.2% |
| all | 16 | -31.6% | -38.1% | 31% | 31% | -29.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.1% | 31% | -29.3% |
| 10% | -44.1% | 25% | -36.1% |
| 15% | -49.5% | 12% | -42.3% |
| 20% | -54.4% | 6% | -47.9% |