Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00b2…3ef1 weather 563 markets active 5h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$397 (+1%) realized +$393 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate74%417W / 145L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$410
14 days+$272
30 days+$366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$387
crypto 2% −$109
economics 0% +$9
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +3.6% -6.3% 97% 12% -5.9%
≤30d 385 -2.1% -11.4% 90% 15% -8.4%
≤90d 562 -5.7% -14.7% 74% 18% -8.7%
all 562 -5.7% -14.7% 74% 18% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 18% -8.7%
10% -22.8% 10% -17.4%
15% -30.3% 8% -25.4%
20% -37.1% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$393
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses417 / 145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 563
History coverage90d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $327 +$28 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $78 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 16 $287 +$31 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $201 +$21 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $401 +$37 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $170 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 13? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $401 +$41 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $401 +$26 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $202 +$46 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $162 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 12? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $16 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $42 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $143 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $62 12h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $42 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $57 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $327 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $79 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $122 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $5 35h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $28 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $34 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $12 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $119 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 81¢ $31 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $35 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 80¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $83 36h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $150 42h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $72 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.83 · official $103.83 (match) · 1277 history records