Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
00 0x00ae…9e99 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$40 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$23
world 40% −$100
other 20% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +116.7% +96.1% 33% 33% +138.8%
≤30d 4 +62.5% +47.0% 25% 25% -19.8%
≤90d 4 +62.5% +47.0% 25% 25% -19.8%
all 4 +62.5% +47.0% 25% 25% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.0% 25% -19.8%
10% +33.0% 25% -27.5%
15% +20.1% 25% -34.5%
20% +8.3% 25% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$43 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage26d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$113 +550%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 24h
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.26 · official $123.26 (match) · 6 history records