Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00ac…588a other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$19
other 24% −$17
sports 20% −$7
crypto 9% −$11
world 6% −$16
culture 5% −$6
economics 4% −$7
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 142 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 157 -0.5% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage101d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $114 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $631 −$4 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $57 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $173 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $181 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $244 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $52 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $164 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $23 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $148 −$2 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $51 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $330 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $53 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $111 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $656 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $45 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $46 12h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 13h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 20h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 20h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $58 28h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $58 35h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $58 43h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $65 43h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $65 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $56 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $57 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 3d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $19.50 (match) · 714 history records