Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
00 0x00a8…36ee other 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$35
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$29
politics 27% −$28
sports 14% −$8
crypto 10% −$9
economics 7% −$4
world 6% −$5
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 67 -0.8% -10.3% 3% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 150 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
all 172 -0.5% -10.0% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 157
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage106d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 24 $63 −$1 -2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $656 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $424 −$5 -1%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $230 −$4 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $63 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $80 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $212 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $183 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $129 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $119 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $197 −$2 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $164 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -3%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $40 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $109 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $64 −$2 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $134 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 05 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $70 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $62 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $63 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $70 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $70 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $65 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $65 24h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $22 24h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $23 29h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 30h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $66 36h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 97¢ $22 36h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $23 40h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $67 41h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $67 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 96¢ $65 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $65 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $68 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $68 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $68 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $68 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $67 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $67 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.20 · official $19.20 (match) · 761 history records